Global cotton is expected to increase US cotton production or reduce production in 2011/12

*US cotton production is expected to fall short of the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate -ICAC

* Global production will exceed consumption and push prices down* 2010/11 is the most turbulent period of cotton prices in decades Reuters, Washington, October 3 -- International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said on Monday, 2011/12 Global cotton production should increase, and the extremely oscillating price movements in the previous year have eased; however, US cotton production will be lower than the government's estimate.

According to the ICAC, the report on the US cotton underpayment in the United States and the survey on crop insurance claims in the United States show that the cotton yield in 2011/12 will be lower than the USDA estimate.

According to the ICAC, US cotton production in 2011/12 will be 3.4 million tons, which is 200,000 tons lower than USDA's estimate made in September.

The organization said that global cotton production will reach 26.6 million tons, pushing year-end inventory from 9 million tons to 10.9 million tons.

The tight global cotton stocks and government intervention in the previous year caused cotton prices to show the most volatile trend in decades. The ICAC pointed out that cotton is the most volatile species among the 53 commodities tracked by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2010.

The ICAC said that the increase in cotton consumption in 2011/12 is expected to be slower than the increase in production, from 24.4 million tons in 2010/11 to 24.7 million tons, and the price is expected to stabilize.

Global Cotton Supply 09/10 10/11 11/12 09/10 10/11 11/12

(Million tons) (million bags)

Output 22.2 24.9 26.6 102 114 122

Consumption 25.3 24.4 24.7 116 112 114

Exit 7.8 7.7 8.1 36 35 37

Ending stocks 8.6 9.0 10.9 40 41 50

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