(Original title: Gold is a rare fall, Chinese aunt opens the "buy, buy and buy" mode)
The news that aunt Xiamen bought a gold bar in a million yuan brought some warmth to the frozen gold market.
It is reported that as gold prices fell to a low of ten and a half months, many gold investors quickly acted. In the past few days, several "Xiamen Aunt" have successively purchased gold. Among them, a "mother" bought a 3.75 kg investment gold bar twice in a bank in Xiamen, with a total price of 1 million yuan.
Since Trump won the US presidential election on November 8, the US dollar index has risen by 5%. The international gold price hit a peak of more than $200 on the day, and last week saw a minimum of more than 10 months per ounce of $1122.35. .
According to market analysts, in terms of value investment, the current cost price of gold and silver is approaching mining, and there is not much room for further decline. In this context, the main sales market for gold, mainly China and India, is about to usher in a buying boom. Especially in China, near the end of the year, there are more festivals, and the golden aunts are already eager to try. Reflected in the price of gold, the current price of gold in London has been weak, indicating that “Chinese aunt†and “Uncle of India†have entered the market.
Gold shocked 200 dollars
Since Trump’s accidental election to the US president, global gold prices have started a mode of frenzied decline, and they have retreated in the first half of the year, and have fallen more than $200 since the beginning of November. Insiders analyzed that the main reasons for the decline in gold prices include the expected recovery of the US economic recovery, the Fed’s interest rate hike in December and positive comments, and weak physical demand in India.
Looking back at the end of 2016, the performance of gold can be described as a big ups and downs: the first half of the year was hot, since the UK's Brexit gold price reached a one-year high in July, and the second half of the year went out of the opposite trend, the gold price fell endlessly, all the way low.
Yang Yi, an analyst at Mei Chuang Huanyu, told China Securities Journal that the market agreed that Trump’s policy after he took office would prompt the US economy to accelerate its recovery, and then the Fed’s first rate hike in the year, raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December. 0.5%-0.75%, the long-term federal funds rate is expected to be raised to 3%, becoming the second rate hike after the 2008 subprime crisis. At the same time, the interest rate hike cycle is expected to strengthen, the US dollar index hit a record high, trading near 103 points, a record high in 2016. "In general, because gold and the US dollar are in a reverse direction, while the US dollar is at a new high, gold is suppressed by it, prices are falling continuously, and the roller coaster-like market is out of the market. So far, gold has almost retreated all the gains. ."she says.
Gong Wenjia, a researcher at Shiyuan Jinxing, believes that after Trump was elected president of the United States, the market is expecting a trend toward the US economy, especially with regard to tax cuts and manufacturing returns, thus promoting the rise of risky assets.
In addition, India’s physical demand for gold has also fallen this year. The high volatility of gold prices and the Indian government’s crackdown on black money have weakened demand for gold. In the first nine months of this year, the country’s total gold consumption was 442.3 tons, a decrease of about 30% from the same period of the previous year.
Holiday demand is expected to start
This year's New Year is approaching, and it is the Western Christmas holiday, the major shopping malls are full of festive atmosphere. However, the reporter found from the gold market in Beijing, and the uncles who came to buy gold did not increase significantly compared with the past.
A field staff told China Securities Journal that most of the investors had already made a profit. The short-term gold trend was subject to the dollar's rise and remained volatile at the bottom. The market was very light. At present, the whole market is in a wait-and-see state. They are no exception. With regard to the gold trend in 2017 and the upcoming Chinese consumer holiday, he expects that the future trend of the US dollar will “see the topâ€, and the overall fundamentals of gold are slowly improving. Under the influence of various favorable conditions, the market will see again. The figure of the Chinese aunt, gold or the rise to celebrate the New Year.
Yang Yi, who has been engaged in gold market research for a long time, believes that due to the Spring Festival, the demand for gold in the Chinese market will increase. At the same time, the price of gold has continued to fall in the near future, and the renminbi is depreciating against the US dollar. These factors have caused Chinese aunts to start the snapping model.
She said that on the one hand, the end of the Spring Festival is coming, the mainland residents represented by "China Aunt" have a cyclical increase in demand for gold, and on the other hand, they are represented by the gold outflow of the gold exchange in the domestic financial market. Re-create a new high in history; the Chinese aunt is about to open the "buy, buy and buy" model. However, similar to the bottom of the year at the end of 2015, this time the aunt entered the market to buy gold at a time when the Fed raised interest rates. When the renminbi exchange rate plummeted, especially the Fed’s interest rate hike “boots†had already landed, interest rate hike expectations are gradually dissipating, as long as gold The price has a little rebound, and the Chinese aunt will either act immediately.
Netease precious metals analyst Zhou Yupeng believes that from the perspective of value investment, the current price of gold and silver is approaching the cost of mining, and there is still little room for further decline. Under this circumstance, the main sales market for gold, mainly China and India, is about to usher in a buying boom. In China, near the end of the year, there are more festivals, and China’s gold aunts have begun to buy gold. Reflected in the price performance, the current London gold has been short of fatigue, indicating that China's gold aunt and Indian gold uncle have begun to enter.
Piggybackers should be careful
Many analysts said that after Trump was elected president, the market's confidence in the US economic recovery has increased and the dollar has gained support. At the same time, the Fed completed a rate hike in December and said it will increase the rate hike in 2017. In the context of a stronger dollar, gold prices are more likely to continue to fall.
"In the last week of this year, the risk faced by the gold market is still biased downwards. In addition, this week is on Christmas Day. At the end of the year, the trading of precious metals will be relatively light. At the same time, it will also face a selling pressure at the end of the year. Be careful." Yang Yi said.
She believes that the international gold price trend is affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and the US presidential election. The US stock market and the US dollar have been high, and they are under pressure from the callback. In particular, the US dollar has hit a 14-year high and is also a high post-election in the US. It will face some resistance. For the moment, the US dollar index is more difficult to innovate. Although the gold price is trading at around 1135 US dollars, it has begun to show signs of slight rebound. However, the trend is still not optimistic. At present, the gold bull market still lacks fundamental support. Basic fabrics will tighten next year, gold production may decline, and the currency problem of China and India's major consumer countries may lead investors to buy gold hedges to boost demand, it is still too early to bargain.
Gong Wenjia said that from the technical point of view, it has been oscillating for many days at 1,120-1,150 US dollars / ounce, whether it is necessary to further confirm the need for bottoming. Therefore, considering the comprehensive consideration, it is more likely that the price of gold will continue to fall under pressure.
Will replay the light in 2017?
"There is a rule in the gold market, that is, when the US president changes people, it is not far from the low point of the gold market." According to market figures, George W. Bush came to power in 2000, and before and after 1999 and 2001 The price of gold hit a low of more than 250 US dollars per ounce for many years and made a double bottom. In 2008, when Obama came to power, he was catching up with the financial crisis. The price of gold fell by more than 30% from the high of $1,032 per ounce to $681 per ounce. . Trump was elected president. Before the end of 2015, the price of gold had hit a low of 5,42 dollars per ounce in five years. But it seems likely that this is not the lowest point, and the gold market is likely to have to go out again. The reason is that the Fed has just raised interest rates for the second time in 10 years, pushing the dollar higher, and plans to raise interest rates three times next year. The US dollar index rose from 98 to 103 points, a record high in 14 years. After Trump takes office, he will implement measures such as tax cuts and increased infrastructure investment, which may push the economy to a good expectation and make the gold market not optimistic.
However, Zhou Yupeng believes that due to the excessive currency of various countries, the long-term depreciation of the currency is a trend, and gold is a long-term bullish for the value-preserving varieties. In addition, there are still many expected risk events in 2017. The European election year is coming, the populist forces are on the rise, and the calls for countries to retreat are high. The demand for safe-haven gold in 2017 may be pushed up, which will push the price of gold up. Recently, terrorist attacks around the world have continued, and to some extent, the safe-haven property of gold has been pushed up, pushing up the price of gold.
He said that from the perspective of long-term investment, gold's future bullishness is the theme. Don't be fooled by the current setbacks. You can start some gold in a batch-holding way to protect the value of your assets in future inflation.
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