The bewildering jade industry

The future of the jadeite market in Yunnan is confusing.

Yu Maofen, the treasurer of the market's dreary Maoyuan jewelry, was caught in a dilemma recently: he chose to withdraw from the sell-off, and he couldn't pay back the cost; he chose to continue to stick to the profit of 3,000 yuan per month.

At the beginning of 2013, because he was optimistic about the jade market and his own preference for this industry, Yu Maofen gave up his years of flower business and invested 600,000 yuan in the jade market. But half a year passed, and she was full of hope, but she had to face such a reality: “In the past six months, despite the cost, each month’s income will be two or three thousand yuan, and there will be a loss of more than 4,000 yuan in one month, which is far lower than before. To do a flower business is even worse than going out to work.”

Now that Yu Maofen is facing more than 10 customers patronizing every day, he still has to face the rise in the price of goods: The same bracelet, when it was purchased at the beginning of the year, it was only 600 yuan, and now it has risen to around 1,000 yuan; a 800-yuan pendant is now At least 1200 yuan.

"Now I'm afraid to enter the price of tens of thousands of goods, not to mention the goods." Yu Maofen said that this year's still making money in the market is either a fixed source of customers, or is the previous stock, like her It is difficult for newcomers who have just entered the industry to switch to money.

Yu Maofen is a novice, but Lin Jianfeng, a Fujianese who joined the company in 2007, can be said to be an “old hand”. At the first floor of Century City Jinyuan Shopping Center, he runs a company called “Yangyang Jewellery”. He also feels deeply about the jade market in recent years.

“Jade Jade Market has been steadily climbing since 2010. In 2009, there were only 7 or 8 jade stores in the mall where I was located. Now there are more than 40. In 2010, the 10,000 yuan shot bracelet, now 30,000 yuan can be bought back. Already not bad.” Lin Jianfeng said that the explosive market conditions were terminated in the second half of 2012. “At that time, there were more than 20 people who came to the store one day ago. When there are more than a day, they have sales of 8-10 million yuan. Two people come to patronize and do business with regular customers, but a few days in the past but sales of a few thousand dollars, sometimes two or three days without opening situation."

Lin Jianfeng, who worked hard for six years in the jadeite industry, frankly stated that the current mood is very contradictory. On the one hand, he expects and expects market rumors to rise. On the other hand, he does not dare to purchase more goods. He fears that the market will collapse and set himself up. Go in.

On the second floor of Century City Jinyuan Shopping Center, Cui Xi (Century) Jewelry World and Jun Huang International Jewelry Art Plaza are adjacent to each other, but there is one common feature: Nearly one-third of the stores are idle. When a reporter asked about the reasons, the salesperson of a shop in the jewelry world of Cuiwei (Century) Jewelry Co., Ltd. said that shopping malls started to attract investment from the beginning of the year and have not yet filled up. The staff of Junhuang International Jewelry Art Plaza told the reporter: The owner of the shopping mall went bankrupt, and some of the shops could not be moved and moved or changed.

Shuffle start?

Behind the deserted shopping mall is a huge number. Emerald expert Motel provided a set of figures: Yunnan's jade jewelry store in 2007 was 6,000, it is now 21,000, and it has surged 15,000 in more than four years. “Eight billions of jade products are pressed into the hands of businessmen, not Into the hands of collectors and consumers, many people do not enter the scene without jadeite knowledge, which eventually caused the current situation."

As Mote said, it is not uncommon for people like Yu Maofen who does not understand jade to enter the jadeite industry blindly, but once they come in, it is not easy to retreat.

“A lot of people came in the market after the 2010 jade season, and during the period from 2009 to 2011, it was the stage where the price of wool and finished products continued to rise, so many people had hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in funds. In the end, they all become jade and are in a dilemma in the second half of 2012, when the market is in the doldrums.” An expert who has observed the jade industry for many years has analyzed this way. “There is always a reluctance to insist on or insist on not Going out and opting out, this is why some shopping malls start to appear vacant."

Yang Ziwen, chairman of Yunnan Yigong Enterprise Group, bluntly stated that after the market downturn, the industry’s internal business “digests” the ongoing process. “This is a balanced wait period for supply and demand. It can also be understood as a shuffling period. Those who are blind, unprofessional, and small Capital merchants will be eliminated in the fierce competition."

Yang Ziwen, who is a member of the provincial CPPCC National Committee, standing director of the China Jewelry & Jewellery Industry Association, and vice chairman of the Provincial Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Industry Association, has been in the jewelry industry for more than 20 years and has more than 500 terminal retail outlets nationwide. There has been considerable concern about the changes in the jadeite market. According to his analysis, from the downturn of the Jade market in 2012, there have been relatively obvious changes in several aspects.

The first is that the rate of entering hot money in the jade industry is slowing down, and financial products entering the industry are increasing. “When the market was booming, Guangdong Jieyang had hundreds of millions of bosses gathered together and went to a public plate. Now, they usually ask some professionals to be consultants. They are no longer blind,” Yang Ziwen said. At the same time, people’s livelihood, Some financial institutions such as Huaxia, Ping An and Fu Yi are ready to launch or have already launched some financial products related to jade. “Since last year, Minsheng Bank's financial products involving jade and jewels launched in Yunnan have reached RMB 6.5 billion.”

Consumers are becoming more rational than the rationality of investors. Yang Ziwen said that in the past few years, consumers have followed the lead of more **, the market is bullish, and consumers are blindly moving forward; ** When they sing, consumers are also watching. Now, consumers have begun to move from blind obedience to reason and from ignorance to cognition. “But in the process, although the market was sluggish, the raw materials had always been sought after and the prices remained high. In June this year, the price of low-end jade wool was generally 3-5 times higher than a year ago. Needless to say, high-end emerald."

The public opinions are divided and the public disk Yang Ziwen mentioned that the public trading in June is undoubtedly the most talked about topic in the recent jadeite circles. Because it is not only a weather vane of the jadeite market, but also a lot of talk about money: a final price of 5800 euros, the original price of jadeite stone is 1089999 euros, is more than 187 times the reserve price; a 2011 floating plate appeared The green stone was 184 kilograms, and the reserve price was 48,000 euros. The owner took one of them, and 160 kilograms started with 28,000 euros. The last transaction price was 36 million yuan. It was the start. About 120 times the price.

In addition to the above two examples of “crazyness”, the reporter also saw from the price list of 14 publicly-traded rough stones provided by a jeweler participating in the public session that 14 times the original stone’s winning price and multiple of the reserve price, and the lowest was 8.26 times, the most is 113.7 times, the trend of price increase is indeed obvious.

According to information released by the Myanmar government, 10,300 copies of rough stones were put on the market this time, a 38% reduction from the original stone in 2012. The starting price of rough stones also started from the minimum of 2000 euros a year ago to a starting price of 4000 euros, and participating merchants. It has reached more than 7,000 people, an increase of nearly 50% from more than 5,000 people in March 2012. There are rumors that this will be the last time the local board.

"In May before the public, I visited Wu Dingwu, Myanmar ambassador to China, and received the Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Mines of Myanmar. I learned that this time the public disk is only internal to the last remaining public disk and some Businesses cherish the wool rushing in the box, and its mine has stopped operating for a year because of local wars.” Yang Ziwen gave such an explanation for the original reduction of the public disk, in his view, this public hype The composition does exist, but it is not the mainstream. “From the current domestic consumption habits, the market does show that supply exceeds demand, but from the perspective of the overall market, supply and demand are still greater than supply, because there is still huge potential in the north of the Yangtze River and in foreign markets. Therefore, price increase is the future development trend."

While predicting future development trends, Yang Ziwen also analyzed that while hot goods are hard to come by, the hot money still continues to rise and the mood is high. After the bidding is completed, there are still a lot of unshipped people; from the participation of the crowd, There are still a lot of novices, and some senior "old bankers" did not appear.

Intriguingly, shortly after the conclusion of the Myanmar public trading session, Li Lianju, deputy director of the provincial stone industry joint meeting and the Provincial Department of Land and Resources, issued an early warning: The burst of the jade bubble is just around the corner.

According to Li Lianju, the collapse of the jade bubble is a combination of reasons: First, the price and value of jadeite in the country have been severely deviated; second, Myanmar has significantly controlled the amount of jade wool, and the price of jadeite wool in Myanmar has been higher than that of previous public plates. It has basically risen 10 times. After processing into the market, there will inevitably be higher prices, which will increase the bubble component of jadeite. Third, Myanmar will not sell wool as much as possible, but will turn to processing to increase the added value and then sell it to China. Fourth, the national macro The economic slowdown, combined with the shrinking of money supply, will reduce hot money, and consumption will slow or stagnate.

Supporting the assertion that “Myanmar will not sell wool as much as possible but instead turn to processing to increase added value” is evidence that the Myanmar government is already in the process of establishing a large-scale jade processing trade zone and has begun to operate at Wacheng City to Mandalay Airport 361. The soil was moved at a distance of a kilometer, and the concession price of 200200 yuan per acre (about 6.07 mu) was given.

Yunnan's Opportunities and Challenges Compared to Li Lianju's "pessimism," Xiao Yongfu, director of the expert committee of the Provincial Jewellery Association and senior engineer, is still optimistic about Jade's future.

"It is impossible for Myanmar to completely stop the public trading. It is impossible for Jadeite to achieve complete production and processing in Myanmar." Xiao Yongfu said that exporting jade wool to China has always been one of Myanmar's economic lifelines. However, there are already tens of thousands of tons in China. Emerald wool, “China can still have products to fill the market without importing wool for 3 years, but Myanmar cannot export wool for 3 years. In addition, the root of jade culture is in China. Burma has actually issued preferential policies to build processing trade zones, but it is still missing. Adequate cultural and technical support."

“Even so, for Yunnan, raw materials processing and market sales are still facing a lot of risks in Yunnan.” Xiao Yongfu said that the fluctuation of the Jade market is “not a natural disaster, but a man-made disaster”. position. As far as Yunnan is concerned, it has obvious advantages in location, but it has been developing for many years and is still “two ends out”. “At the moment, the establishment of a processing company in Yunnan is imminent, and processing has been completed. It will not be difficult for wool to come to Yunnan.”

Apart from being “outside”, Yang Ziwen pointed out that the jewellery market in Yunnan is still dominated by traditional models such as sister stores and brother shops, and the lack of funds and poor integration capabilities make it rare for large companies like Queensland and Yunnan. It is difficult to form the concept of finance.

“The government’s understanding of the jewellery market is not enough. Many people do not know about the basic sensibility of jade and blindly enter the market, and the government departments have not established a corresponding threshold, so that Kunming, Tengchong, Ruili and other places have dozens of The existence of a professional market, and redundant construction also caused a huge waste of resources.” Yang Ziwen said that Yunnan can develop far more than jade resources, there are more than 40 kinds of jade resources like Huanglong Yu, tourmaline jade to be developed and excavated, “At the same time as the market in the province is saturated, it is very difficult for us to see Yunnan enterprises outside the province except for individual large companies. The jade jewelry market in Yunnan is still in a state of passive marketing.”

In Yang Ziwen's view, in addition to focusing on guiding production and processing companies to land, Yunnan should also seize the opportunities and unique geographical advantages of the bridgehead construction and control the right to speak from the source. “Where there are raw materials, where the technologist will go, the government will guide technologists and related schools to take root in Yunnan and guide the expansion of related financial products. This is the fundamental way out for the development of the jadeite jade industry in Yunnan.”

However, Yang Ziwen also admitted that although the jade jewelry market in Yunnan has great potential, it also faces challenges such as insufficient awareness, low level of professionalism, poor cooperation between government and enterprises, bank-enterprise cooperation and the interests of Myanmar. Under the background, guiding and developing various types of jewellery products and implementing Yunnan's treasure strategy are the way to 'Yuhui Hui'.

The reporter's notes on the confusing jadeite industry are not affordable for anyone from the customer to the dealer to the experts and scholars. The reporter has heard this statement more than once: The line of jade is very deep. Thus, it was understood that the original "gold with priceless jade" could have another meaning.

The so-called "jade has no price" reflected in the market, not only refers to the precious jade, but also that it does not have a specific price system. Pricing yourself, watching people's pricing become an open secret. One businessman who does not wish to be named is frank: 90% of people who come to the store to buy jade are inexperienced, which gives the business a lot of space. “Generally speaking, businesses will at least increase their sales by more than 50%. If you are knowledgeable, 30% is the bottom line."

For the market, the high prices of low-end products will not change much, but mid- to high-end products will rise more and more. One said that the above-mentioned merchants did not respond positively. They only said something intriguing: “Make low prices and bitter money. Doing high stocks and miscreating money."

In fact, the depth of water is not only reflected in the retail market. The 73-year-old director and senior engineer of the expert committee of the Yunnan Provincial Jewellery Association, Xiao Yongfu, has been working with Jadeite for 60 years. He talked about the changes in the Jade market. He said bluntly: The Jade wool market is not the Chinese people's say, but the jade market is high. It is the Chinese themselves. “As early as a few years ago, the Cantonese would compete with the original stone with a reserve price of 1 million yuan with 800 to 10 million in funds. Burmese have tasted the sweetness and will have the so-called 'hunger marketing'.”

According to Xiao Yongfu, from the mid-1980s to 2010, the 15%-20% annual growth rate of the jadeite market is a relatively normal phenomenon. After 2010, with the impact of the country’s economic structural adjustments, hot money detached from real estate, mining, etc. began to flood the jadeite jewelry market, and it only experienced a surge in the previous two years. “In the downturn of the market, these high prices come in. Jade became a hot potato. Therefore, there was a saying that 'the most wealthy is the jeweler and the poorest one is a jeweler'.

Besides Myanmar’s public trading, outsiders agreed that the price of the public market has skyrocketed. Xiao Yongfu revealed two details to the reporter: First, one of his students participated in bidding for about 30 rough stones, bidding for the bid and 2011. About the same, about half of them were taken into the bag; the other is that a Guangdong businessman invested heavily to hire people to speculate on the public market, but did not pick up the goods. The purpose was to speculate on the wool of his own stocks.